By Mike Wynn Sports
When handicapping the weekend’s football card there are many different ways one can go about doing it, and in this article we’re going to take a look at four different angles that are easy to use and require little work on your part.
1. The Sandwich Game
Throughout the course of a football season every team is going to have games where they’re focused and ready to go, and every team is going to have a game or two where they just come out flat. Sandwich games are often those games where the players just aren’t focused, and they can be great spots to pick up some easy money. Basically, in a sandwich game I’m looking for a team coming off a big game in a situation where they’re playing a far lesser opponent, and they’ve got another big game on deck next Saturday. Let’s use this scenario as an example. Take a team like Florida playing a game at home against a Florida St., and then they face a Mississippi, and then LSU after that. In an ideal sandwich situation you want a few things to take place. First I always want the team we’re looking to play against coming off a win in that first game. In our example I would have no interest in a Florida team off of a loss, as they’d be in a fowl mood and looking to vent a little frustration. Secondly I prefer the team we’re looking to go against, in this case Florida, to be laying substantial points on the road in a non-revenge situation. If Ole Miss had upset the Gators the year before I would look to stay away, as revenge is always a good motivator in college football. Thirdly the bigger the game on deck the better chance that your go against team will be peeking ahead. In our example a Florida/LSU game could have huge implications in the SEC conference race as well as national implications. Obviously not every sandwich situation is going to be ideal, but checking the schedules and looking for these spots can pay big rewards throughout the college season.
2. Double Digit Rivalry Dogs
Later in the college football season we get into the rivalry games and double-digit rivalry dogs are always something you want to take a look at. I think this system works for a couple of reasons. First and most obviously it’s a rivalry game, and generally speaking the two teams involved have penciled in the game as one of the highlights for the entire season. Emotions always run high and you’ll get a big effort from both teams, but especially the underdog as they are generally trying to salvage something from the season, and that’s why they’re getting the big points in the first place. Secondly and maybe not so obvious is the time of year that the rivalry games are generally played. They play these games most often late in the season, and what that does is give the teams a ton of game footage for the coaching staffs to go over. Let’s face it, by the 12th game of the season there probably isn’t a whole lot of tricks and wrinkles to the offensive and defensive schemes that they haven’t showed somewhere during the season. Rivalries tend to go back and forth so revenge is always something to be very aware of here, and double digit rivalry dogs at home are doubly nice as the home crowd atmosphere is huge in college football.
3. Bowl Underdogs Getting More Than A Touchdown
Bowl underdogs getting a touchdown plus have been fairly easy money over the years. Once again there are several reasons as to why this is the case. Firstly if your playing in a bowl game your generally a pretty decent football team. I know with all bowls that they play these days the teams playing in the lesser bowls have become weaker and weaker, but they play each other and games are generally competitive. Secondly, as I noted in the previous system, they play these games at the end of the season. Game film is readily available for all the teams playing in Division 1A, so the coaches have all that film and generally they have 4 weeks to go over it and come up with ways to defend or attack the other team. Thirdly is the intangible motivation of being the underdog, and not only an underdog, but an underdog of a touchdown plus. Let’s face it everybody on and off the field knows the lines of these football games, and it’s always easier for the coaching staff to motivate their team when they feel that they’re that they aren’t being given any respect. Throw in the fact that they play these games on neutral fields for the most part and your going to get a competitive game that stays inside a touchdown.
4. Ranked Underdogs Versus Unranked Teams
The last system I’m going to talk about here involves top 25 teams throughout the season. It’s a very simple that has produced good results in the past although it was not a money maker in 2007.What we are looking for is any ranked team in the top 25 that’s getting points versus an unranked opponent, and I look to go against the ranked team, and I’ll give you an example. Last year Wisconsin went to Illinois ranked 5th in the country and was a 2 point underdog against an unranked Illinois squad. We played Illinois in that game and got the money as Illinois won the game 31-26. The odds makers are generally looking for a underdog money here as the average fan would see Wisconsin undefeated, ranked number 5 in the country, and getting points Joe Public will undoubtedly look at this game and take the points with a ranked team and Vegas makes a nice profit. Now you do have to check the injury reports to make sure there’s nothing happening there to cause a drastic line adjustment, but if the game is clean take the favorite. This may seem backward for some of you, but trust me you don’t want to follow the sheep here. Be on the side of the bookmakers and you’ll be surprised how often you cash in using this simple system.
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By Totals 4 U
Welcome the third edition of your 8-week series taking an off-season look at the National Football League. This week follow the trail of Paul Bunyan and Babe the Blue Ox through the Great Lakes region to check out what has been shaking in the NFC North other than the locals this unseasonably cool spring in the Midwest. This is our back yard so bundle up, leave your Big City troubles at the door, and we’ll throw a couple extra brats on the grill!
Green Bay (13-3 regular season, 1-1 playoffs) The Packers lose just 2 starters from a squad that came within a field goal of the Super Bowl in Brett Favre’s final season and begin the Aaron Rogers (20 of 28 for 218 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT) era with a cupboard stocked deep. The young line (19 sacks allowed, 4.1 yards per rush) of the league’s 2nd ranked offense (378.2 yards and 27.2 points per game) returns with another year of experience, joined by T Joe Toledo (FA-Mia) plus 4th and 5th round draft selections G/T Josh Sitton and T Breno Giacomini. WR’s Driver (82 for 1048 and 2 TD), Jennings (53 for 920 and 12 TD), and Jones (47 for 656 and 2 TD) plus TE Donald Lee (48 for 575 and 6 TD) - who seized the starting job from Bubba Franks (cut) - all return to welcome 2nd round Kansas State draft pick WR Jordy Nelson (Big 12 records 122 catches for 1606 yards and 10 TD in 2007) who’s arrival likely ends the comeback of WR/KR Koren Robinson’s with the Green and Gold. Backs Brandon Jackson and DeShawn Wynn are healthy again to share the load with RB Ryan Grant (188 for 956 yards and 8 TD) while quarterbacks Brian Brohm (2nd round, Louisville) and Matt Flynn (7th round, LSU) bring big time college football experience to the depth chart. Coach Mike McCarthy loses only DT Corey Williams (trade, Cleveland) from a defense that posted 36 sacks, 19 picks, and 22 fumble recoveries while allowing 18.2 points per game and added St. Louis free agent SLB Brandon Chillar (41 starts) to compete with Brady Poppinga alongside studs Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk (combined 236 T, 4 ½ S, 3 INT). Aging corners Charles Woodson (37 T, 4 INT) and Al Harris (63 T, 2 INT) get help from 3rd round Auburn CB Patrick Lee while future Pro Bowler and lethal hitter S Atari Bigby (86 T, 5 INT) has been re-signed. Only 6 of Green Bay’s games this year will be against 2007 playoff teams.
Minnesota (8-8 regular season, missed playoffs) Brad Childress’s crew lost their final pair to end 2007, eliminating them from the post-season…to the relief of NFC contenders. No one was excited to face the #1 ranked team in both rushing offense (164.6 yards per game at 5.3 yards per) and defense (74.1 yards per game at 3.1 yards per) while banking 8 defensive scores. Backs Adrian Peterson (1341 yards/12 TD rushing) and Chester Taylor (844 yards/7 TD rushing) pounding behind the right side of McKinnie, Huchinson, and Birk will again be the plan of attack but don’t completely discount the Viking passing game this season. Minnesota swapped out Kelly Holcomb for Gus Ferrotte at the backup trigger and threw away a 5th round pick on John David Booty (my finger, elbow, wrist, back, etc. hurts!) but we still think QB Tavaris Jackson (1911 yards, 9 TD, 12 INT) can succeed with his 6 top targets returning plus Chicago free agent WR Bernard Berrian. Even the remarkable job against both the run and pass (38 sacks) done last season by the Viking front seven - which adds Pro Bowl free agent DE Jared Allen (15 ½ S in 14 games) to backers E.J Henderson and Chad Greenway plus tackles Kevin Williams and Pat Williams - couldn’t hide their coverage liabilities. At safety Mike Doss, Dwight Smith, and Tank Johnson are gone while FS Madieu Williams (FA-CIN) is a major upgrade alongside Darren Sharper, Texan free agent Michael Boulware will be a valuable backup, and 2nd round pick/tackle machine FS Tyrell Johnson (363 T and 13 INT in 41 college starts) from Arkansas State was a fine grab but little has changed at the corners. CB’s Antoine Winfield and Cedric Griffin, who combined for just 1 pick while opponents piled up a league worst 281.2 yards passing per contest, will again get the call. The Vikings are not a complete team but they are tough enough to grab a Wildcard spot.
Detroit (7-9 regular season, missed playoffs) The Lions collapsed under the league’s worst defense (393.6 yards per game) with a 1-8 finish, but Matt Millen has made the most of the off-season. Starters CB Fernando Bryant and SS Kennoy Kennedy are gone from a secondary that was toasted for 274.2 yards per game and 32 TD passing, joining LB Boss Bailey and DE Kalimba Edwards in getting cut. DT Shaun Rogers was traded to Cleveland for CB Leigh Bodden (88 T, 6 INT) who becomes Detroit’s #1 corner opposite the re-signed Stanley Wilson, backed up by Fisher (re-signed), Smith (re-signed), and Brain Kelly (FA-TB). Free agent SS pickups Dwight Smith (MN) and Kalvin Peterson (TB) are upgrades plus all this depth improves the Lions’ not so special teams coverage (12.1 yards per punt, 26.9 per kick). Quality draft day attention to the stoppers added blazing OLBs Jordan Dizon (2nd round, Colorado) and Cliff Avril (3rd round, Purdue) plus 3rd and 7th round DT’s Andre Fluellen (Florid State) and Landon Cohen (Ohio) add depth as does Seattle free agent DT Chuck Darby. Coach Marinelli’s explosive passing game returns starting QB John Kitna (63.3% for 4068 yards, 18 TD, 20 INT), backups Stanton and Orlovsky, plus all 4 top receiving targets but didn’t greatly help the league’s 2nd-worst rushing attack (80.5 yards per). Top backs Kevin Jones (cut) and T.J. Duckett (FA-SEA) and their combined 916 yards and 11 TD rushing are gone, leaving Tatum Bell (44 for 182 and TD) and 3rd round pick Kevin Smith (2576 rush yards for Central Florida in 2007) but the bigger problem is an offensive line that surrendered 56 sacks in 2007. Subtract free agent G/T Damien Woody to the Jets and add 1st round pick Boston College RT Gosder Cherilus who struggled his senior season (7 penalties, 5 ½ sacks) while playing out of position. Much has been done and much needs to be done for this squad.
Chicago (7-9 regular season, missed playoffs) With 12 draft the Bears chose to largely sit free agency out, grabbing only WR’s Marty Booker (Miami) and Brandon Lloyd (Washington) to replace Muhsin Muhammad (cut) and Bernard Berrian (FA-MIN). Offensive line was the major need (43 sacks, 3.1 yards per rush) for Coach Lovie Smith, resulting in the release of RT Fred Miller (if you can’t block, can you at least stay onside?) and LG Reuben Brown with help coming from the college ranks. The 14th overall pick snatched Vanderbilt LT Chris Williams (2 sacks last 1558 snaps) - allowing John Tait to move back to RT - while a pair of 7th round steals purloined Georgia G Chester Adams and All-Big 10 Michigan T Kirk Barton. RG Garza and C Kreutz stay put while Terrence Metcalf, Josh Beekman, and John St. Claire battle for LG. Behind the upgraded line will again be QB Rex Grossman and backup Kyle Orton with Brian Griese traded to Tampa Bay for a second round pick that adds 6’2” 222 Tulane RB Matt Forte who rushed for 2127 yards and 23 TD for Tulane in 2007 and may take the top job from Cedric Benson (DUI arrest) and Adrian Peterson. 3-time All-SEC WR Earl Bennett (3rd round, Vanderbilt) and 6’6” 218 WR Marcus Monk (7th round, Arkansas) add firepower while TE’s Desmond Clark (re-signed) and Greg Olsen will get plenty of downfield grabs. The Bear 29th ranked defense (247.1 pass, 122.9 rush) got less attention with DT Walker (cut), S Archuleta (cut), and LB Ayanbadejo (FA-BAL) gone while starters LB Lance Briggs and FS Brandon McGowan re-signed but their is hope for this group. SS Mike Brown returns from injury to help CB’s Tillman and Vasher plus 3rd round Arkansas DT Marcus Harrison is a huge addition to a line that racked up 41 sacks last season. PR/KR Devin Hester (6 return TD in 2007) can’t carry this team again…can he?
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NOTE: A new article will be posted each Wednesday throughout the season breaking down a major match up for the upcoming weekend. For now, enjoy the above and plan on checking out our weekly analysis all season long.